2026 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook

Tope Alake, “US renewable investments fell 36% on Trump’s policies, BNEF says,” Bloomberg, Aug. 26, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of S&P Global Capital IQ Pro, “Power plant units screener,” accessed Oct. 15, 2025

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Diana DiGangi, “Clean energy developers hope for clarity in upcoming FEOC guidance,” Utility Dive, Sept. 8, 2025; FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern)—entities tied to “covered nations” (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) via ownership, control, or jurisdiction per DOE guidance. Newly expanded sourcing thresholds generally apply to projects that begin construction in 2026 or later; ownership or influence-related FEOC screens can still affect who claims or transfers credits, depending on structure and timing.

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Internal Revenue Service, Sections 45Y and 48E Beginning of Construction Notice, Aug. 15, 2025. 

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Wind and solar are deemed the most impacted with the expedited phaseout of 45Y and 48E tax credits for projects beginning construction after July 4, 2026. Residential solar loses the 25D credit after 2025. Battery storage retains tax credits for projects beginning construction by 2035 but faces higher supply chain risks from aggressive FEOC restrictions and ongoing tariffs. The OBBBA also accelerates the phaseout of 45x advanced manufacturing production credits, covering facilities from critical minerals to renewables. Low-carbon hydrogen may still qualify for 10-year production credits under 45V if construction begins before 2028—two years longer than the House bill but five years shorter than the Inflation Reduction Act. Over 75% of green hydrogen projects under development are now at risk. Hydro retains the 45Y and 48E credits through 2033, as well as the elective pay provision for public utilities and co-ops. It was recognized as a firm baseload source along with nuclear and geothermal. Geothermal receives strong federal support with intact tax credits. The bill also accelerates the federal lease sales from a biennial schedule. Electric vehicle loses comprehensive subsidies, including 25E, 30D, 45W, and 30C, by late 2025 and mid-2026, on top of the elimination of corporate average fuel economy penalties and Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPAs) US$1 billion heavy-duty EV program. Carbon capture utilization and storage received an expanded 45Q, raising credit value up to US$180 per metric ton of carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery destinations. Nuclear receives full policy support, retaining most IRA credits with the original phase out of 2032, adding only the FEOC restrictions. It also received expanded transferability, bonus depreciation, and additional funding for small modular reactors for defense use. FEOC rules now apply across multiple credits for different technologies. See: Deloitte, “A closer look: Inside the new tax law,” July 8, 2025; David Brown, Christopher Seiple, Sylvia Leyva Martinez, Leila Garcia Da Fonseca, and Allison Weis, “One big, seismic shift in US energy policy,” Wood Mackenzie, July 10, 2025; Matthew Allen and Jeremy Chase-Israel, “Hydro fares well in ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’,” National Hydropower Association, July 7, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of data from Wood Mackenzie, BloombergNEF, Rhodium Group, and the REPEAT Project at Princeton University.

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Brown, Seiple, Martinez, Fonseca, and Weis, “One big, seismic shift in US energy policy”; Diana DiGangi, “Utilities may speed renewable projects under new tax credit timeline: Jefferies,” ESG Dive, July 21, 2025; Kirsten Errick, “’Changing the rules of the game’: Budget law, Trump order rock US solar sector,” S&P Global, July 22, 2025.

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DiGangi, “Clean energy developers hope for clarity in upcoming FEOC guidance”; FEOC—entities tied to “covered nations” (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) via ownership, control, or jurisdiction per DOE guidance. Newly expanded sourcing thresholds generally apply to projects that begin construction in 2026 or later; ownership or influence-related FEOC screens can still affect who claims or transfers credits, depending on structure and timing. The window to come into service could be longer than four years with excusable delays. See: Internal Revenue Service, Sections 45Y and 48E Beginning of Construction Notice.

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Ben Zientara, “States without residential solar third-party ownership may become “holes in the market” after 2025,” PV Magazine, July 22, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of data from Lazard, Energy Information Administration, National Renewable Energy Laboratory annual technology baseline 2024, Goldman Sachs, and Jefferies within the 2025 to 2026 timeframe (data as of Aug. 15, 2025).

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Edmund Crooks, ”Strong power demand supports investment in US renewables,” Wood Mackenzie, Sept. 17, 2025. The report shows fixed-mount solar with a levelized cost of energy range of US$30 to US$80 per megawatt-hour, compared to natural gas combined cycle’s range of US$61 to US$126 per megawatt-hour.

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The White House, “POTUS officially signed resolutions ending CA’s EV mandate & emission standards once-and-for-all,” June 12, 2025; EPA, “Greenhouse gas standards and guidelines for fossil fuel-fired power plants,” accessed July 22, 2025; EPA, “Mercury and air toxics standards,” accessed July 22, 2025; EPA, “EPA releases proposal to rescind Obama-era endangerment finding, regulations that paved the way for electric vehicle mandates,” July 29, 2025; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “Amendment to Director’s Order of April 16, 2025,” May 19, 2025; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “Director’s Order,” Aug. 22, 2025; US Department of the Interior, “Interior ends preferential treatment for unreliable, subsidy-dependent wind and solar energy,” July 17, 2025; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, “BOEM rescinds designated wind energy areas on the outer continental shelf,” press release, July 30, 2025.

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US Department of Energy, “Secretary Wright announces termination of 24 projects, generating over $3 billion in taxpayer savings,” May 30, 2025; Karin Rives, “Citing funding cut, US EPA ends $7B Solar for all grant program,” S&P Global, Aug. 8, 2025; Rachel Frazin, “USDA limits funding for solar, wind on farmland,” The Hill, Aug. 19, 2025; US Department of Transportation, “Trump’s transportation secretary Sean P. Duffy terminates and withdraws $679 million from doomed offshore wind projects,” press release, Aug. 29, 2025.

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At the time of writing, Section 232 investigations were ongoing for wind turbines and parts, polysilicon and derivatives, and processed critical minerals and derivative products. Antidumping and countervailing duty investigations were ongoing for battery active anode material imports from China and solar cell and module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. See: International Trade Administration, “Final affirmative determinations in the Antidumping and Countervailing Duty investigations of crystalline photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled into modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam,” accessed July 22, 2025; Kelly Pickerel, “New AD/CVD investigation launched on solar panels from India, Indonesia and Laos,” Solar Power World, July 17, 2025; International Trade Administration, “Preliminary affirmative determination in the Antidumping Duty investigation of active anode material from the People’s Republic of China,” accessed Aug. 4, 2025; Shannon K. O’Neil, Julia Huesa, and Gabriela Paz-Soldan, “A guide to Trump’s Section 232 tariffs, in maps,” Council on Foreign Relations, Oct. 8, 2025; Bureau of Industry and Security, “Section 232 investigations: The effect of imports on the national security,” accessed Aug. 22, 2025.

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Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency, “Renewable and clean energy standards,” April 2025; Galen Barbose, “US state electricity resource standards: 2025 data update,” Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory, August 2025.

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John Fortney, “Governor signs new plan to power Ohio’s future,” Ohio Senate, May 16, 2025; Ohio Laws, “Section 4928.64: Electric distribution utility to provide electricity from qualifying renewable energy resources,”  accessed Sept. 25, 2025; Liz McLaughlin, “Lawmakers erase NC 2030 climate goal, override Stein veto,” WRAL News, July 29, 2025.

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Nichola Groom and Nora Buli, “US lifts ban on New York offshore wind project after natgas pipe compromise,” Reuters, May 20, 2025; Kirsten Errick, “Colorado to expedite clean energy development before US tax credits expire,” S&P Global, Aug. 5, 2025; Megan Brenan, “Nuclear energy support near record high in US,” Gallup, April 9, 2025; Matthew Eisenson et al., “Opposition to renewable energy facilities in the United States: June 2025 edition,” Columbia Law School, June 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of S&P Global’s corporate carbon-free energy update database, as of July 2025.

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 Ibid.

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Martin Stansbury, Kelly Marchese, Kate Hardin, and Carolyn Amon, “Can US infrastructure keep up with the AI economy?” Deloitte Insights, June 24, 2025; Kate Hardin, Patricia Tuite, Martin Stansbury, and Jaya Nagdeo, “Nuclear energy’s role in powering data center growth,” Deloitte Insights, April 9, 2025; Jim Thomson, Marlene Motyka, Craig Rizzo, Kate Hardin, and Jaya Nagdeo, “Elevating the role of energy storage on the electric grid,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 25, 2023.

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Deloitte analysis of S&P Global Capital IQ Pro data, accessed Oct. 16, 2025.

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Sylvia Martinez et al., “US solar market insight Q2 2025 report,” Wood Mackenzie, June 9, 2025.

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Dylan Baddour and Arcelia Martin, “Data centers are building their own gas power plants in Texas,” The Texas Tribune, June 5, 2025; Tom DiChristopher, “Gas utilities in the US advance data center deals as power bottlenecks persist,” S&P Global, Aug. 25, 2025; Diana DiGangi, “Gas turbine manufacturers expand capacity, but order backlog could prove stubborn,” Utility Dive, Sept. 5, 2025; Solar Energy Industries Association, “Why America’s AI leaders are pumping billions into solar + storage,” April 11, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of data from LevelTen Energy, “Special report: The first clear post-OBBBA market signal is here,” accessed Aug. 28, 2025; Allison Good, “Renewable energy contract prices rise, projects ‘flying off the shelves’,” S&P Global, Aug. 14, 2025; Emma Penrod, “Data centers could bring alternative battery types into the mainstream, developers say,” Utility Dive, June 23, 2025; LevelTen Energy, “PPA price index North America, Q1 2025,” accessed Oct. 13, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of EIA-860 and S&P Global Capital IQ data, accessed Sept. 3, 2025; S&P Global, “Electrification drives dealmaking – A review of year-to-date power plant transactions,” webinar slides, May 15, 2025; Kari Lydersen, “Illinois’ grid needs batteries. Can the legislature deliver?” Canary Media, May 12, 2025; LevelTen Energy, “PPA price index North America, Q1 2025.”

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Aurora Energy Research, “Battery energy storage impact and benefits assessment for SPP,” July 18, 2025.

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Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), “Real-time co-optimization + batteries education, July 9, 2025; PJM, “PJM chooses 51 generation resource projects to address near-term electricity demand growth,” press release, May 2, 2025; New York State, “Governor Hochul announces first bulk energy storage solicitation as part of New York’s energy storage roadmap,” July 28, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Future Batteries. NREL noted that lithium iron phosphate has become the primary chemistry for utility-scale grid storage in 2022. NREL, “Annual technology baseline,” accessed July 14, 2025; Solomon Evro, Abdurahman Ajumobi, Darrell Mayon, and Olusegun Stanley Tomomewo, “Navigating battery choices: A comparative study of lithium iron phosphate and nickel manganese cobalt battery technologies,” Future Batteries, no. 4 (2024); Kelly Pickerel, “World’s largest hydrogen + lithium energy storage system to come online in California this quarter,” Solar Power World, April 8, 2025; Neetika Walter, “Game-changing rust battery to deliver 100-hour backup in California’s grid by 2026,” Interesting Engineering, June 19, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of Wood Mackenzie, “US energy storage monitor: Q2 2025 report,” June 24, 2025.

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T&D World, “CalReady program quadruples capacity to support California grid,” May 5, 2025; Garrett Hering and Kirsten Errick, “US grid stress opens door for virtual power plants despite policy risks,” S&P Global, June 30, 2025; The California Independent System Operator and ISO-NE fully opened wholesale market participation to aggregate distributed energy resource capacity in 2024, while Southwest Power Pool (end of 2025), the New York Independent System Operator (2026), and PJM (2026) will follow. ERCOT is advancing Phase 3 of its aggregated DER pilot. See: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “FERC Order No. 2222 explainer: Facilitating participation in electricity markets by distributed energy resources[i],” accessed Aug. 21, 2025; ERCOT, “Aggregate distributed energy resource (ADER) pilot project,” accessed July 23, 2025. 

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American Council on Renewable Energy, “Bridging demand and financing: Voluntary offtake in clean energy,” Dec. 17, 2024; Michelle Lewis, “This Danish renewables developer sold its largest US solar farm,” Electrek, Feb. 18, 2025; Steve Munson, Lee Peterson, Joo Sang Chae, and Nam Nguyen, “Repowering: Critical financing considerations for retrofitting wind and solar energy property,” CohnReznick, June 10, 2024; Bob Woods, “‘Repowering’ era for America’s aging wind energy industry begins, despite Trump’s effort to kill it,” CNBC, April 29, 2025; Good, “Renewable energy contract prices rise, projects ‘flying off the shelves’.” 

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Ryan Kennedy, “Solar project and finance updates: Texas, New Mexico and eastern US,” PV Magazine, Aug. 19, 2025.

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Zientara, “States without residential solar third-party ownership may become “holes in the market” after 2025.”

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Diana DiGangi, “Transferability is transforming clean energy project finance, say dealmakers,” Utility Dive, June 6, 2025.

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Vida Rozite, Jack Miller, and Sungjin Oh, “Why AI and energy are the new power couple,” IEA, Nov. 2, 2023.

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Howik, “AI in battery storage optimization: The future is here,” June 30, 2025.

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Stephen Lacey, “Investor Andrew Beebe talks AI-fueled geothermal and ‘the edge of the possible’,” Latitude Media, June 11, 2024.

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Photon, “US technology company receives 130 million dollars for robot-assisted assembly of large solar parks,” March 18, 2025; NedZero, “Generative AI in the wind sector: Beyond ChatGPT,” accessed Sept. 3, 2025.

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Marlene Motyka et al., “Funding the growth in the US power sector,” Deloitte Insights, Feb. 26, 2025; Stem, Form 10-K retrieved from AlphaSense, accessed July 23, 2025; Wayne Hicks, NREL’s artificial intelligence work reveals benefits to wind industry, NREL, May 7, 2024.

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Deloitte analysis of the 2024 Deloitte State of AI Survey. Results are filtered to include only US power, utilities, and renewables responses.

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Deloitte analysis of Capital IQ data up to Sep. 30, 2025, accessed Oct. 15, 2025. 

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Ibid.

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Reuters, “TPG to buy solar firm Altus Power for $2.2 billion,” Feb. 6, 2025; National Grid, “Sale of National Grid renewables,” Feb. 24, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of Capital IQ data up to Aug. 31, 2025, accessed Sept. 15, 2025. The analysis assumes safe-harbor credit eligibility if a project is under construction or scheduled to come online by technology-specific tax credit deadlines. Note that 60% of the 58.4 GW of transacted pipeline capacity originated from a single transaction and does not have a projected online year. Using data with explicit projected year information, we estimate 23.4 GW of transacted renewable pipeline, 39% which is under construction as of Aug. 31, 2025, and 94% of which is set to meet the safe harbor deadlines.

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Stonepeak, “Repsol allies with Stonepeak on solar and storage portfolio for its first US renewables partnership,” April 29, 2025; Business Wire, “Adapture Renewables acquires 110 megawatt solar and battery project from Samsung C&T Renewables,” March 11, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of S&P Global Capital IQ transactions data, accessed Aug. 8, 2025.

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Shell, “Shell subsidiary Savion to streamline five US solar projects through joint venture,” July 28, 2025; AES Corporation, “AES and Meta sign long-term PPAs to deliver 650 MW of solar capacity in Texas and Kansas,” May 21, 2025.

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John Zadeh, “US to impose 93.5% tariff on Chinese battery graphite,” Discovery Alert, July 18, 2025.

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International Trade Administration, Final affirmative determinations in the Antidumping and Countervailing Duty investigations of crystalline photovoltaic cells whether or not assembled into modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam; Kelly Pickerel, “New AD/CVD investigation launched on solar panels from India, Indonesia and Laos”; Congress-Gov, “Expanded Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum,” Sept. 26, 2025.

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At the time of writing, Section 232 investigations were ongoing for wind turbines and parts, polysilicon and derivatives, and processed critical minerals and derivative products. Antidumping and countervailing duty investigations were ongoing for battery active anode material imports from China and solar cell and module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. See: International Trade Administration, “Preliminary affirmative determination in the antidumping duty investigation of active anode material from the People’s Republic of China”; O’Neil, Huesa, and Paz-Soldan, “A guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in maps”; Bureau of Industry and Security, “Section 232 investigations: The effect of imports on the national security.”

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Deloitte analysis of data from Rhodium Group and MIT CEEPR, “Clean investment monitor: The state of US clean energy supply chains in 2025,” April 24, 2025; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “Land-based wind market report, 2024 edition,” Aug. 15, 2024. 

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Ibid; Solar Energy Industries Association, “Solar & storage supply chain dashboard, “accessed July 7, 2025.

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This includes both EV and grid storage systems. Noah Gordon, “How the US-China trade war could derail the energy transition,” Carnegie Endowment, April 17, 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of S&P Capital IQ Pro data, accessed July 17, 2025, and NREL’s annual technology baseline model for utility-scale energy storage, accessed July 11, 2025. The analysis assumes the 60 MW/4-hr utility-scale storage system and excludes projects currently under construction, as they are exempt from FEOC rules.

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Deloitte analysis of the US Department of the Interior and US Geological Survey, “Mineral commodity summaries 2025,” March 2025.

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Deloitte analysis of IEA data, “Critical minerals data explorer,” accessed Sept. 9, 2025; Gracelin Baskaran and Meredith Schwartz, “Trump strikes a deal to restore rare earths access,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, June 11, 2025.

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Garrett Hering, “Spared by subsidy cuts, US battery storage sector faces tough supply chain pivot,” S&P Global, Aug. 4, 2025; Brown, Seiple, Martinez, Fonseca, and Weis, “One big, seismic shift in US energy policy.”

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Kirsten Errick, Umer Khan, and Garrett Hering, “US solar panel imports plunge, domestic factories arise in precarious shift,” S&P Global, June 17, 2025.

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Stella Nolan, “S&P: Cleantech supply chains propel energy transformation,” Supply Chain Digital, Jan. 13, 2025; Marlene Motyka, Kate Hardin, and Jaya Nagdeo, “Electric power supply chains: Achieving security, sustainability, and resilience,” Deloitte Insights, Sept. 29, 2022.

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Will White and Matthew Messer, “How predictive maintenance is transforming solar operations in the age of AI,” Solar Power World, April 7, 2025; Iain Hoey, “First sodium-ion battery storage systems deployed on US grid,” International Fire & Safety Journal, Aug. 8, 2025.

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Jonathan Gifford, “Solar manufacturing moving onshore and prospering,” PV Magazine, March 28, 2025.

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American Clean Power Association, “US energy storage industry to invest $100 billion in American grid batteries,” April 2025; Andy Colthorpe, “100GW in 10 years: US Energy Storage Association issues ‘expanded vision’,” Energy Storage News, Aug. 25, 2020.

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Marija Maisch, “World’s largest second-life battery storage project joins Texas grid,” PV Magazine, Nov. 22, 2024; Valerie Thompson, “US, Canada ramp up solar glass plans,” PV Magazine, May 18, 2024; Mackenize Dekker, “Michigan battery plant introducing new product to support power grid, grow clean energy,” News Channel, June 25, 2025.

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